The Senate races toward a ‘big, beautiful’ finish line: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, our intrepid team on Capitol Hill has the latest state of play as the Senate inches closer to a final vote on President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Plus, we take a detour to the campaign trail, where two Republicans who were staring down tough re-election races opted for retirement instead.

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— Adam Wollner

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Senate begins voting on Trump’s massive bill as Republicans race toward the finish line

By Sahil Kapur, Scott Wong and Frank Thorp V

The Senate began voting on amendments to President Donald Trump’s massive tax cut and spending bill with the goal of passing it this evening or early tomorrow morning, even with the support of several key Republicans up in the air.

The 940-page legislation, which the Senate advanced on a 51-49 vote late Saturday, was still taking shape even as the “vote-a-rama” began — a process in which senators can offer an unlimited number of amendments — with GOP leaders hoping to use it to satisfy concerns from wavering factions.

The math: Republicans need to hold 50 of their 53 senators to pass the bill. They have lost Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who complained that it adds too much to the national debt, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who blasted the Medicaid cuts as damaging to his home state. (More on Tillis below.)

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, voted to advance the bill on Saturday but told NBC News she was still leaning against it on final passage. She expressed worries about the Medicaid cuts and said she prefers raising taxes on high earners, calling those “two of the most important things” she wants addressed.

And Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who also voted to keep the process moving over the weekend after discussions with Republican leaders, has voiced Medicaid concerns.

In addition, a group of conservatives — Sens. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.; Rick Scott, R-Fla.; and Mike Lee, R-Utah — are insisting on revising the bill to reduce the deficit impact.

The cost: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the Senate bill would increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years — it found that revenues would fall by about $4.5 trillion and spending would be cut by $1.2 trillion. The bill is also projected to lead to 11.8 million people losing their health insurance by 2034 if it becomes law, the CBO said.

The GOP is using a budget trick known as “current policy baseline“ to hide the cost of extending the tax cuts Trump signed into law in 2017, effectively lowering the sticker price by $3.8 trillion. That tactic has not been used in the budget process before and would set a precedent to weaken the Senate’s 60-vote rule. The Senate voted 53-47 to green-light the new baseline with all Republicans voting in favor.

Read more from our Capitol Hill team →

Related coverage:

• Julie Tsirkin and Frank Thorp V run through the major provisions in the 940-page Senate bill and how much they will cost or save the government.
• Shannon Pettypiece breaks down the winners and losers in the bill.
• Elon Musk has renewed his attacks on the legislation, threatening to support primary challenges to lawmakers who vote for it.
• Follow live updates →

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Midterm corner: Two battleground Republicans call it quits

The past few days have seen a flurry of activity on the 2026 campaign trail, with a handful of lawmakers plotting their exits from Washington.

North Carolina Senate: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis made the surprise announcement Sunday that he would not seek re-election after voting against advancing the “big, beautiful bill.” President Donald Trump had threatened to meet with potential primary challengers to the two-term senator in battleground North Carolina. Tillis’ seat had already been a top target for Democrats heading into next year as they seek to cut into the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority.

Nebraska’s 2nd District: Rep. Don Bacon will not run for re-election, opening up his Omaha-based seat. It’s one of three districts represented by a Republican that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 election, making it a prime pick-up opportunity for Democrats. Bacon told The Wall Street Journal he’s “not a ‘yes’ necessarily” on the Trump agenda bill when it comes back to the House.

South Dakota governor: We wrote earlier this year about the growing number of sitting members of Congress who are looking to move back home. Add GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson to the list after he launched his gubernatorial campaign.

Pennsylvania’s 3rd District: 71-year-old Rep. Dwight Evans, D-Pa., decided against seeking a sixth term in Congress. The deep-blue Philadelphia-area seat is expected to draw high interest from potential Democratic candidates.

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🎙️Here’s the Scoop

In this evening’s episode of “Here’s the Scoop,” host Morgan Chesky discusses the Senate’s marathon voting session on the “big, beautiful bill” with NBC News chief congressional correspondent Ryan Nobles.

Listen to the episode here →

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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